• GeoIQ
  • Invasive species risk

Invasive species risk

Intelligent Geospatial Decision Making

Invasive alien species pose a growing threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Netherlands. Well-known examples include Japanese knotweed and the American signal crayfish, which cause ecological damage and economic losses. Many other species have already been observed in the Netherlands but cannot yet reproduce due to climatic limitations. With rising temperatures, the risk of establishment increases.

GeoIQ Partners assessed potential future establishment of invasive species in the Netherlands. Species were selected from the Dutch species register that are already present but not yet reproducing. For each species, climate ranges in the native region were determined – whether related to air temperature, soil conditions, or salinity in freshwater and marine environments.

These climate ranges were compared with future climate scenarios for the Netherlands (2040–2060), including projections for the North Sea, major rivers, and terrestrial systems. The analysis identified where conditions are likely to become suitable for species establishment.

Challenge

The main challenge was aligning species-specific ecological requirements with future climate data, while accounting for the uncertainty of multiple climate scenarios. Harmonizing diverse datasets – from marine conditions to terrestrial climate raster’s – required advanced geospatial modelling.

GeoIQ deliverables

  • Suitability maps per species under future climate scenarios (2040–2060)
  • Comparative analysis of species’ climate ranges with Dutch projections
  • Database of species records combined with climate parameters

Impact

The results help policymakers, ecologists and water authorities anticipate which invasive species could spread in the coming decades. By visualizing potential establishment areas, the project provides a science-based foundation for preventive measures, monitoring strategies and biodiversity protection in a warming climate.

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